I kept a diary during this year's World Series of Poker in order to try to gain a greater understanding of the situations in which I found myself and to review how I reacted. Just as professional NFL team members will gather around tapes Monday morning in order to review their actions from Sunday's games, I wanted to be able to learn from my experiences. When reviewing the notes I kept, I believed I experienced a slightly higher incidence of running into aces while holding kings. In truth, this can be one of the most demoralizing situations players can find themselves in. Sometimes, I waited five hours for a major hand such as this to come along. It is also worth noting that last month I was able to place in the final six of the biggest event of the European Tour. This event was known as the WPT Event. This event took place at the Aviation Club on the Champs Elysse.
Picture this: There were only six players left. The cameras from news network ESPN were rolling. I was dealt a pair of kings on the Surinder Sunars Big Blind. My opponent, one of the best poker players of all time held a pair of aces. He then doubled up. While he would go on to win the grand prize of six thousand Euros, I couldn't help but feel that I was the one who gave him exactly what he needed at just the right time. After this happened to me, I believed it would be worth while to calculate the odds of facing this situation in any average poker game. Strange as it may seem, this is one statistic that I have never seen reviewed in any other forum. One published statistic is that the odds are sixteen to one that a player will be dealt a pair. The odds of being a dealt a specific pair such as aces are two hundred and twenty to one. Another way of looking at these statistics is that if as a player you are holding any indiscriminate set of cards, for example a pair of kings or a seven and a two, the odds are two hundred and twenty to one that any of the opposing players are holding a pair of aces.
When it came to my six handed WPT final the statistic of two hundred and twenty to one needed to be divided by my five opponents. This worked out to be forty four to one. Players should be advised and perhaps this is a more useful statistic that a pair of kings is only a two to one favorite versus an ace and a king. There are warning signs to be considered. Please also note that an ace will flop twenty three percent of the time.
There are dangers when it comes to slow playing kings. For example, the odds of an opponent holding a pocket pair is estimated to be fifteen to two to flop a set. I believe that it is a waste of a good hand to smooth call a pre-flop raise when they are holding pocket queens. When I see my opponents do this, I believe they are acting in a suicidal or wasteful manner. For my part I will reraise. I do this in order to try to get my whole stack in the pot prior to the flop. Remember, the odds regarding pocket kings or pocket aces are variable depending on how many hands are dealt. With respect to a full table, the odds are estimated to be at least twelve to one. There are dangers of a small pair out flopping you. More important than this, though, is the rate of incidence that an ace or a king will flop. This will occur forty three percent of the time. While either one of these cards on the flop would kill a player's action and prevent a jackpot prize, it can also often lead to a player losing out on an average sized pot. In these events try to keep the game simple. That is go all in, cross your fingers and hope for the best.
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